S&P 500 July 22, 2010

The market is making another attempt at breaking resistance of 1100 for the S&P 500.  I think it’s going to happen this time. Usually the third time is the charm but there may be some mixed news with earnings but in general, the market has been able to bounce back especially after bad news.  So it looks good.  I started buying again as the market started softening.  I’m a bit long with very little hedged at this time.  I think money will start getting back into the market soon as the year ends because there really isn’t anywhere else for it to go at this time.  I think the real estate market is getting stable with the low rates and there will be some growth there soon as the population growth because it’s been almost three years since the house recession started and people have raised their savings rates for the past two years from near 1% to close to 4% now.  Corporate coffers are full.  Private coffers are getting full.  I don’t think all the money will come at the same time but when it starts moving, I think it’ll be rather swift.

Longer term, commodities and energy will rule again.  I bought a lot of calls in silver and solid positions in CLF which have been hedged by selling some in the money puts now.  I am invested in a bank, some natural gas, and short the treasuries.  I’m going to start pull off some positions after tomorrow and Monday when it break resistance.  The bears have much more to lose than to gain with all governments ready to keep everything stable.