I’m been AWOL for a while.  It’s been an ridiculously busy time lately and soon calm down for me after November.  I should be off on vacation again in December.  But I haven’t had the same type of eagle focus that I’ve had before on my trading account.  But it’s been doing solidly since putting it on automatic since July.  The money is still coming off the sidelines but at this time, I think it’s hit and gone beyond my yearly targets so I am getting a bit weary about the run at this point without any clear path to increasing sales earnings for companies.

Let’s be clear.  The market will still rise solely based on hope and liquidity.  The world is flush with money and it has to come out from underneath all those mattresses.  However I don’t see a shift away from bonds that signal that everything is in the clear yet.  The economy will not return quickly.  The affects of stimulus and cost cutting are disappearing quickly while revenue and sales stay stagnant.  There is going to be growth but from where?  This basically tells us that this is a stock pickers market from now on and there will no longer be broad based rises in the market.  I feel at this time, certain stocks are at fair value or beyond it.  There are sectors that are trailing and will catch up.  So to bet on the whole mark now is a flawed strategy.  This is where the smart makes money because everyone joe smuck out there was making money this last eight months.

So you’re finally going to get what you’ve been waiting for…my forecast for the next month to end of the year.  I figured there is a few scenarios.  One the market pulls back and we can reload on certain plays that I think look just sheer winners in a year or so.  The market keeps rising and so do valuations.  Three, the market trades sideways for a while.  I pick either side ways or down.  If it goes down, you need to pick strong companies with great earning potential.  So positions that I’m looking or holding include GE, SLW, MON, ALL, CNO, STT, BGC, and a few more.  It’s a stock pickers market.  So decide well.  I’m hedge about 70% long and %70 short.  So I’m trying to protect gains and make some money in case the possibility of a 5-10% pull back occurs.  I think as the market goes into the holiday period, there’s going to be some volatility like usual and could force the market to pull back to the bottom of the consolidation range.  If it breaks that I think it could come close to the 1000 level on the S&P but we’ll see.

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