The extension of the unemployment benefits to thousand of fallen Americans during the great rush to layoff excessive workers, ultimately cushioned what could have been a very fragile consumer. But with the great Bear Sterns debacle coming to it’s one year anniversary, many are faced with the realization that their final source of income is coming in a very fast halt in a jobless recovery stabilization of the economy. According to the National Employment Law Project, we are going to see 540,000 have their benefits expire in about six weeks at the end of September while 1.5 million in total will face the fate by the end of this year.
It may be safe to a certain portion of this population is perhaps just relaxing on the unemployment benefits until their expire but the job market does not seem to be recovering but very cautious as there is growing preference for temporary and contract workers. In fact, looking at statistics from outsourcing sites, I’ve seen a rather large growth in outsourcing but not just out of this country but within this country as more and more of the formerly employed are positioning themselves as a freelance or contract employee. This may be a growing trend as companies will attempt to stay lean in the face of more global competition.
The statistics will put increasing pressure on consumer confidence even if the unemployment benefits are extended as they are widely expected as I expect another stimulus by sometime next year although a smaller one to supplement states.
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I like your comment on the 18th. I believe we might see a pull back by middle of sep to oct. Its true umenployment and consumers go hand in hand and lots of people are out of work.