This story has been whispered many many times but here it is again.  Consumer spending seems to be slowing and debt is rising.  The piggy banks are running on empty.  This leads to less retail growth and then this leads to a decline in sales.  When revenues decline enough, some stores cannot pay their rents.  When rent is tough to come by, commercial real estate owners don’t get paid.  That is perhaps a simplistic story but it’s fast becoming trust.  Many major retailers that were expanding the last few years may need to cut back and reinvent themselves.  Here are some short ideas for commercial real estate.  Simon Properties (SPG) and Kimco Realty (KIM).  Or simply buy IYR – Real Estate ETF.

Disclosure: Long FCX, CHK, MON, DIG.  Shorts: None

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